3 rd April
Why performance averages are important
I was asked today why performance averages and percentages are important .
Simple>
As a poker player I know Ill get beats, lots of them, some good and soon forgotten and the bad ones that stay with you for years. These are just variance.
Take tonight down to the final 4 who is there, Paul Murphy, Dan Wallace , Kev Curry and Rob Woodmansey.
Paul has cashed three times out of the five times he has played. Dan has cashed 20 from 29 , kevin has cashed 17 from 27 and Rob has cashed 9 from 11.
Paul raises Dan who instantly moves all in , Paul calls with K9 suited despite being chip lead. Dan shows AQ suited and loses to a K on ther turn. Dan taps the table.
Rob makes it five to play from the button and Paul moves all in, Rob calls with almost equal stacks. Rob shows QQ Paul 55, and hits the five. Rob congratulates Paul and wishes him luck. Kevin offers the split and Paul refuses with a huge chip lead. Twenty minutes of heads up and its all over. Kev wins.
Paul has a percentage of 55 percent, equivalent to finishing 11th in a 20 runner field. Kev has an Average of 63%, equivalent to finishing 13th , Dan 67% or 14th . Rob 89% or 18th out of 20.
Only seven players average over 60 percent who have played more than three times. Twenty two players average below 33% , betting "heads" on a three sided coin. Sixty eight percent of all players average between 45 and 55 , almost a coin flip.
The beats even out over the long haul and quite simply the better players are getting their money in when ahead. There is no other explanation. If anyone tells me "Dan , he is such a lucky player" one more time I will get them to play him heads up with pre-configured hands and community cards (just like contract bridge). He makes more profit playing the same hands against the same flops. It really is that simple. For a Nineteen year old kid he is sensational, we have a REAL card player in our midst and I suggest you all start watching him play , analysing his play and learning from it. Enjoy it also, he will be moving up in the poker world pretty damned quickly.
Ill make anyone a wager now, if he gets his act together and starts to play qualifiers he will win a major event within 5 years. He is easily good enough to turn pro. I've been playing for almost 30 years and he is the second best Ive seen at his age ( "Milly" hope you are dragging lots of pots in Valhalla) . One or two rough edges, but polish those out and we have a "Helmuth" and I use that simile wisely. His read is stunning.
Notably the two people we have playing full time, who shall remain nameless, are averaging 63 ( played 3) and 53 (played 15) .
I should mention those who deserve a mention within this context. i.e the others who are doing considerably more than flipping a coin.
Harry Bear, John Sandell, Spencer Murphy, Gavin Teal take a bow.
Martin"Ice Cream" Goodman, you need to play more often. I know you are not a flake and not a vanilla card player.